We’re all guilty of putting off that big decision because our brains can’t stop focusing on potential negative outcomes. Dread shapes our decision making and new research published in the journal Cognitive Science explores why spinning those negative scenarios affects us more than the possible positive outcomes.
The team from the University of Bath in England and the University of Waterloo in Canada analyzed data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS). This long-scale survey of roughly 10,000 households in the United Kingdom measures several economic, social, and psychological variables. The team looked at roughly 14,000 individuals between 1991 and 2024, tracking emotional responses to real-world economic choices including investing, changing jobs, or making health decisions.
They found that this emotional imbalance of focusing more on the potential bad outcomes than the good ones plays a central role in shaping economic behavior. Survey participants who experience stronger negative than positive anticipatory emotions are significantly more likely to avoid risk. They found that the emotional impact of dread is more than six times stronger than the potential happiness they would feel from anticipating equivalent gains. Dread also makes people less likely to wait for delayed positive outcomes like a return on investment, even when that patience may lead to greater rewards.
“Put simply, the emotional pain from anticipating a £10 (about $13) loss is far stronger than savoring the thought of a £10 gain,” Chris Dawson, a study co-author at the University of Bath who researches economics and decision making, said in a statement. “This imbalance shapes how much risk people are willing to take and how long they are prepared to wait, potentially influencing decisions across everyday life, from money and careers to health and wellbeing.”
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Additionally, the study confirms that when outcomes are experienced, the losses loom larger than gains. The emotional sting of a loss was roughly twice as strong as that of an equivalent gain. According to the team, this research advances a new psychological theory that links risk and time preferences. This could help explain why those who are more risk-averse also tend to be more impatient.
“We see that risk avoidance and impatience are psychologically connected,” added study co-author and University of Waterloo psychologist Dr. Sam Johnson. “People try to avoid choices with possible negative outcomes and also prefer outcomes to be resolved sooner, in order to minimise the emotional burden they experience – the dread of anticipating bad news.”
The team also found a lot of variation between individuals. Some experience these anticipatory emotions before making a decision far more vividly than others, helping to explain why attitudes about both risk and patience differ so widely. Notably, anticipatory dread’s effects remained significant even after personality traits, mental health, income, and education were accounted for.
The authors believe that the findings have implications for understanding financial decision making, long-term planning, health choices, and other real-world behaviors.
“The study helps to explain why people often postpone or avoid choices that are objectively beneficial in the long run,” said Dawson. “For example, individuals may delay or avoid medical screening if results take a long time to arrive. Even when screening reduces health risks, the dread of waiting for potentially bad news can discourage testing. Similarly, long waits in areas such as investment decisions can deter engagement simply by prolonging the emotional burden of uncertainty.”
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