Tech companies champing at the bit to create the latest, greatest generative AI models face an uncomfortable dilemma. Data-hungry models like ChatGPT and Google’s Gemini rely on troves of digital material in data centers that require massive amounts of energy for processing and constant cooling. Some estimates suggest this swelling energy demand could account for nine percent of all US electricity by the end of the decade. That’s up from around four percent today, a steep increase experts attribute in part to Big Tech’s brewing generative AI arms race. Renewable energy sources like wind and solar aren’t ready to meet demand alone. Instead, much of the new energy could come from fossil fuel sources which could undermine many of these companies’ ambitious “net zero” and carbon neutral pledges.
Tech companies are scrambling in an effort to find more renewable energy to keep those climate goals within striking distance. Some are even looking to a new, more advanced form of geothermal power as a potential partial saving grace. Last week, Facebook-owner Meta announced a new deal with the Texas-based geothermal energy startup Sage Geosystems to develop new power plants potentially capable of delivering 150 megawatts of carbon-free baseload power, reportedly enough to power 70,000 homes, to Meta by the end of the decade. If successful, the ambitious effort could offer tech companies a much needed clean energy boost to help meet their staggering energy demands. It would also mark a critical inflection point for modern geothermal, which is coming of age on the backs of techniques and expertise gleaned, maybe ironically, from the oil and gas industry.
“I think that the world is not prepared for what is about to happen in terms of AI demand,” Jamie Beard, executive director of Project InnerSpace, a nonprofit focused on promoting geothermal power, told Popular Science.
Beard said the tech industry and geothermal startups are at a “convergence.” After years of development and tests modern geothermal is ready to start serving larger businesses. Tech, in desperate need of new cleaner energy sources, is ready to invest. Beard and others in the geothermal space are optimistic new startups like Sage are ready to help meet new energy demands, though experts say it’s still unclear whether or not this still developing industry can scale operations and reduce prices fast enough to be viable in a rapid-fire AI environment.
Modern geothermal: ‘It’s not just Iceland’
Geothermal power, at its core, isn’t exactly new. Traditionally, the practice of transferring heat naturally stored under the Earth’s crust into power was limited to volcanos, geysers, and hot springs—all places where the heat simmers near the surface. That method works for heating and energy storage but is especially limited and accounts for less than .5% of overall US electricity generation. A wave of so-called “next generation geothermal” startups like Sage Geosystems is looking to vastly expand those geographical limitations.
Instead of locking themselves into areas with volcanic activity, these companies survey the country for far more plentiful supplies of hot solid rocks found underground. Taking a page out of natural gas extraction methods, the geothermal companies create many fractures within the piping hot rock and pour in water that gets heated to temperatures approaching 300 degrees Fahrenheit. In Sage‘s case, CEO Cindy Taff told Popular Science they drill into rocks with a mixture of water, a heavy powdery rock, and a polymer. The fracking fluid is then removed.
Those heated reservoirs can then be used to generate electricity in a turbine that reportedly creates 99% less carbon dioxide than similarly sized fossil fuel plants. Details about the new Sage plant powering Meta’s data centers remains scarce. Taff said they are still working with geologists and Meta for an exact location but noted it will be somewhere “east of the Rockies.” Taff said she expects the facility could require around 100 acres of space and a staff of around 40 or 50 to operate it. A Meta spokesperson confirmed its partnership with Sage is aiming to deliver up to 150 megawatts of power. The company didn’t comment when asked how its investments in AI may be altering its overall energy demand.
“As our infrastructure grows, we need a diverse portfolio of energy sources especially something like geothermal that operates steadily throughout the day,” the Meta spokesperson said. “We are excited to partner with Sage on this promising technology.“
The geothermal energy produced by Sage won’t feed directly into Meta servers. Instead, the spokesperson said the energy will go to the energy grid the company’s data centers are connected to. In general, data centers operated by Meta and other tech firms still take in electricity produced in part by fossil fuels. Meta attempts to offset those carbon emissions by matching its total annual electricity use with renewable energy purchases. This matching process, which often involves companies purchasing Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs), isn’t perfect. Research shows it can be difficult to determine exactly where energy pulled from the grid is coming from, which can result in inaccurate offsets. Still, this multiple step matching process is how large corporations like Meta can technically claim they are cutting down fossil fuel use on sustainability reports. Geothermal energy will be one more addition to Meta’s renewable offsets which they need to increase as their demand for electricity balloons.
For Taff, a top priority moving forward is burning down costs down to the point where geothermal is competitive with natural gas. Ideally, they would like it to be an attractive energy solution even if their buyers aren’t necessarily committed to reducing their carbon footprint. Initial upfront capital investment from large tech companies eager to show the world they aren’t relying solely on fossil fuels to meet increased energy demands put geothermal companies in a unique position to cash in on hefty investments they could use to make future operation cheaper and more accessible. At the same time, it’s not guaranteed Sage, or any geothermal company, can scale fast enough to meet massive new tech energy demands. Geothermal startups partnering with tech companies may look appealing, but it’s worth remembering the renewable power source will only initially make up a small portion of those firms’ overall energy consumption. It remains to be seen whether geothermal can, or ever will, make up a majority of tech’s energy base.
“You can’t do it [geothermal] everywhere, but where we can do it, we would like to get those costs down where it is the energy or the power of choice because of the cost and because it’s clean,” Taff said.
Fracking tech could make geothermal more widely available
Geothermal isn’t currently a major energy producer in the US but there are signs that could change in the coming decades. A recent roadmap from the US Department of Energy predicts Geothermal energy capacity could increase by 20 times current levels by 2050. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory estimates geothermal could supply 12% of overall US electricity by that same date. Expansion isn’t limited to data centers either. Fervo, another Texas-based competitor in the geothermal energy space which previously partnered with Google to create a 5 megawatt pilot plant in Nevada, is currently building out a 400 megawatt plant in Utah which is expected to start selling electricity to California utility companies starting next year. Taff, the Sage Geosystems CEO, says they’ve also received interest from the US Department of Defense.
“I think geothermal is going to be a bigger piece of the [overall energy] pie,” Taff said.
Cornell University professor and biomolecular engineering expert Jefferson Tester expressed optimism about Meta’s deal with Sage and told Popular Science he thinks geothermal could be an attractive energy source both due to its theoretical abundance and availability unlike wind solar which are dependent on weather and time of day.
“People don’t necessarily associate looking at the ground they are walking on as a resource available to them,” Tester said. “They can feel the wind and sun but they can’t feel geothermal.”
But geothermal isn’t a magic bullet either. Costs associated with operations are still high. While the industry did receive meaningful funding from the Biden administrations’ Inflation Reduction Act, geothermal generally has received less federal support than other renewable sources. There’s also real environmental concerns. Studies show the process used for cracking open hot underground rocks, similar to those pursued by natural gas fracking companies, could lead to disruption or “induced seismicity.”
Another word for that is earthquakes. Reports link new geothermal techniques to a magnitude 5.5 earthquake in South Korea in 2017 which injured dozens of people. When asked about potential earthquakes, Beard says those concerns seemed “slightly overblown” and may be avoided by companies drilling away from fault lines.
“I think that any type of risk like seismicity or concerns with fracking can be managed when done appropriately,” Beard said.
AI energy demands are threatening tech’s climate goals
The rapid rise of ever more powerful generative AI models is making the tech industry’s energy appetite all the more insatiable. Querying OpenAI’s ChatGPT, according to a recent forecast released by financial giant Goldman Sachs, requires around 10 times as much electricity as a typical Google search. And that’s just for text responses. The overall data generated by emerging generative AI image and video models like OpenAI’s Sora “have no precedent” according to the report. That same forecast suggests more than half of new energy used to meet that AI-propelled demand could come from non-renewable sources.
“Those are just massive shifts that I don’t think that the world is prepared for right now,” Beard said.
xAI, the AI company founded by billionaire Tesla CEO Elon Musk, recently drew the ire of activists in Tennessee for allegedly using gas turbines to power its new data centers in Memphis, Tennessee, and subsequently worsening the city’s ongoing smog issues. Google, meanwhile, recently released a report saying its overall emissions had actually increased by 13% in 2023 compared to the year before despite its pledge of getting to net zero by 2023. That increase, the report noted, was turbocharged by energy demand for AI projects.
“Whether or not technology companies want to issue press releases about it, we’re going to need the speed and scale of oil and gas,” Beard added.
Experts speaking with Popular Science broadly agreed the next five to ten years could play a critical role in determining whether or not modern geothermal can actually gain traction as a viable alternative to fossil fuels. The sudden demand for new, non fossil-fuel energy caused by the AI moment means tech firms in particular may be more willing to open up their deep wallets to support the industry.
At the same time it’s unclear whether the new plants and the theoretical abundance of hot rock will create enough reliable energy fast enough to meet the moment. Geothermal could mature into a viable, cleaner alternative to fossil fuels at scale but it will require a level of patience and persistence tech companies in particular aren’t exactly known for. Oil and gas providers, meanwhile, loom ever present in the background, more than willing to fire up their plants to satiate AI’s ravenous energy appetite.
